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7.5 Risk profile (continued)

Annual Report 2018 > RESULTS 2018 > Supplementary Information and Notes > 7. Risk management > 7.5 Risk profile (continued)
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7.5.3. Market risk

Market risk means the risk of loss or of adverse change in the financial situation resulting, directly or indirectly, from fluctuations in the level and in the volatility of market prices of assets, credit spread, value of liabilities and financial instruments.

Market risk types in the PZU Group include:

  • equity risk – the possibility of incurring loss as a result of changes in the values of assets, liabilities and financial instruments caused by changes in the level or in the volatility of market prices of equities;
  • unquoted equity risk – the possibility of incurring loss as a result of changes in the valuation of unquoted shares;
  • property risk – the possibility of incurring loss as a result of changes in the values of assets, liabilities and financial instruments caused by changes in the level or in the volatility of market prices of real estate;
  • commodity price risk – the possibility of incurring loss as a result of changes in the values of assets, liabilities and financial instruments caused by changes in the level or in the volatility of market prices of commodities;
  • inflation risk – the possibility of incurring loss associated with the level of information, especially inflation of prices of goods and services as well as expectations as to the future inflation level, which affect the valuation of assets and liabilities;
  • liquidity risk – the risk of being unable to realize investments and other assets without affecting their market prices in order to settle financial liabilities when they fall due;
  • interest rate risk – the possibility of incurring a loss as a result of changes in the value of financial instruments or other assets and a change in the present value of projected cash flows from liabilities, caused by changes in the term structure of market rates or in the volatility of risk-free market interest rates;
  • basis risk – the possibility of incurring a loss as a result of changes in the value of financial instruments or assets and a change in the present value of projected cash flows from liabilities, caused by changes in the term structure of spreads between market interest rates and risk-free rates or in the volatility of such spreads, excluding credit spreads;
  • foreign exchange risk – the possibility of incurring loss as a result of changes in the value of assets, liabilities and financial instruments, caused by changes in the level or in the volatility of currency exchange rates;
  • credit spread risk – the possibility of incurring loss as a result of changes in the value of assets, liabilities and financial instruments, caused by changes in the level or in the volatility of credit spreads over the term structure of the interest rates on debt securities issued by the State Treasury;
  • concentration risk – the possibility of incurring loss stemming either from lack of diversification in the asset portfolio or from large exposure to default risk by a single issuer of securities or a group of related issuers.

Concentration risk and credit spread risk are regarded as an integral part of market risk when measuring risk for the purposes of risk profile, risk tolerance, and market risk ratio reporting. The risk management process has, however, a different set of traits from the process of managing the other sub-categories of market risk and has been described in section 7.5.1.1 along with the process for managing counterparty insolvency risk.   

The market risk in the PZU Group originates from three major sources:

  • operations associated with asset and liability matching (ALM portfolio);
  • operations associated with active allocation, i.e. designating the optimum medium-term asset structure (AA portfolios);
  • banking operations in Pekao Alior Bank – generating material exposure to interest rate risk.

A number of documents approved by supervisory boards, management boards and dedicated committees govern investment activity in the PZU Group’s companies.

Risk units take part in the risk identification process, measure, monitor and report on the risks. Market risk is measured using the model of calculating economic capital of market risk based on the value at risk method (VaR) or the standard formula in accordance with the principles defined by the Solvency II Directive. In order to effectively manage market risk, risk limits are adopted in a form of a capital amount allocated to each market risk and limits for individual market risk factors.

In Pekao, the market risk management system forms the structural, organizational and methodological framework, which aims to maintain the balance sheet and off-balance sheet structure in line with the accepted strategic objectives. The market risk management process and the governing procedures include the separation into the banking and trading books.

In managing its trading book’s market risk, Pekao strives to optimize the financial performance and ensure the highest possible quality of service of the bank’s clients in respect to market-making, while remaining within the limits approved by the management board and the supervisory board.

When managing interest rate risk in its banking book, Pekao endeavors to secure the economic value of equity and to achieve its intended net interest income target within the accepted limits.

In Alior Bank, the exposure to market and liquidity risk is restricted by the system of periodically updated limits introduced by the resolution of the supervisory board or the management board that include all risk measures. In Alior Bank, there are three types of limits that differ in respect to their functioning - basic, supplementary and stress-test limits. Market risk management focuses on limiting potential adverse changes in economic value of equity and optimizing the financial result.

Exposure to market risk

Carrying amount as at 31 December 2018    Note  Assets at Group’s risk Assets at the client’s risk    Total 
  Including banks’ assets
Financial assets and cash exposed to interest rate risk   295,402 252,859 1,303 296,705
Fixed-income debt securities 35 52,534 24,169 1,134 53,668
Variable-income debt securities 35 31,298 28,333 77 31,375
Loan receivables from clients 33 182,054 182,054 - 182,054
Term deposits with credit institutions 35 2,679 976 90 2,769
Loans 35 4,535 - - 4,535
Cash 38 17,053 15,288 2 17,055
Buy-sell-back transactions 35 3,278 158 - 3,278
Derivatives 34 1,971 1,881 - 1,971
Financial assets exposed to other price risk   2,347 816 4,209 6,556
Equity instruments 35 1,859 356 4,181 6,040
Derivatives 34 488 460 28 516
Total   297,749 253,675 5,512 303,261

Carrying amount as at 31 December 2017 (restated)    Note  Assets at Group’s risk Assets at the client’s risk    Total 
  Including banks’ assets
Financial assets and cash exposed to interest rate risk   280,829 243,736 1,384 282,213
Fixed-income debt securities 35 66,973 39,278 1,270 68,243
Variable-income debt securities 35 28,128 25,449 23 28,151
Loan receivables from clients 33 169,457 169,457 - 169,457
Term deposits with credit institutions 35 1,751 851 90 1,841
Loans 35 3,698 - - 3,698
Cash 38 8,238 6,620 1 8,239
Buy-sell-back transactions 35 885 553 - 885
Derivatives 34 1,699 1,528 - 1,699
Financial assets exposed to other price risk   3,377 898 4,503 7,880
Equity instruments 35 2,725 363 4,503 7,228
Derivatives 34 652 535 - 652
Total   284,206 244,634 5,887 290,093

The following table presents financial assets of banks and at client’s risk, by the item in which they are classified in the consolidated financial statements:

Financial assets of banks and financial assets at client’s risk  Note  31 December 2018 31 December 2017 (restated)
Pekao and Alior Bank Financial assets at client’s risk Pekao and Alior Bank Financial assets at client’s risk
Loan receivables from clients 33 182,054 - 169,457 -
Financial derivatives   2,341 28 2,063 -
Investment financial assets   53,992 5,482 66,494 5,886
Measured at amortized cost   18,569 90 n/a n/a
Debt securities   17,435 - n/a n/a
Government securities   11,395 - n/a n/a
Domestic   11,395 - n/a n/a
Fixed rate   8,491 - n/a n/a
Floating rate   2,904 - n/a n/a
Other   6,040 - n/a n/a
Quoted on a regulated market   738 - n/a n/a
Fixed rate   430 - n/a n/a
Floating rate   308 - n/a n/a
Not quoted on a regulated market   5,302 - n/a n/a
Fixed rate   801 - n/a n/a
Floating rate   4,501 - n/a n/a
Buy-sell-back transactions   158 - n/a n/a
Term deposits with credit institutions   976 90 n/a n/a
Measured at fair value through other comprehensive income   34,546 - n/a n/a
Equity instruments   256 - n/a n/a
Quoted on a regulated market   44 - n/a n/a
Not quoted on a regulated market   212 - n/a n/a
Debt securities   34,290 - n/a n/a
Government securities   22,509 - n/a n/a
Domestic   21,556 - n/a n/a
Fixed rate   8,955 - n/a n/a
Floating rate   12,601 - n/a n/a
Foreign   953 - n/a n/a
Fixed rate   953 - n/a n/a
Other   11,781 - n/a n/a
Quoted on a regulated market   4,121 - n/a n/a
Fixed rate   1,248 - n/a n/a
Floating rate   2,873 - n/a n/a
Not quoted on a regulated market   7,660 - n/a n/a
Fixed rate   2,985 - n/a n/a
Floating rate   4,675 - n/a n/a
Measured at fair value through profit or loss   877 5,392 n/a n/a
Equity instruments   95 358 n/a n/a
Quoted on a regulated market   68 358 n/a n/a
Not quoted on a regulated market   27 - n/a n/a
Participation units and investment certificates   5 3,823 n/a n/a
Quoted on a regulated market   5 61 n/a n/a
Not quoted on a regulated market   - 3,762 n/a n/a
Debt securities   777 1,211 n/a n/a
Government securities   643 1,211 n/a n/a
Domestic   643 1,207 n/a n/a
Fixed rate   299 1,130 n/a n/a
Floating rate   344 77 n/a n/a
Foreign   - 4 n/a n/a
Fixed rate   - 4 n/a n/a
Other   134 - n/a n/a
Quoted on a regulated market   9 - n/a n/a
Fixed rate   4 - n/a n/a
Floating rate   5 - n/a n/a
Not quoted on a regulated market   125 - n/a n/a
Fixed rate   3 - n/a n/a
Floating rate   122 - n/a n/a
Financial instruments held to maturity   n/a n/a 4,839 -
Debt securities   n/a n/a 4,839 -
Government securities   n/a n/a 4,808 -
Domestic   n/a n/a 4,808 -
Fixed rate   n/a n/a 3,839 -
Floating rate   n/a n/a 969 -
Other   n/a n/a 31 -
Not quoted on a regulated market   n/a n/a 31 -
Fixed rate   n/a n/a 31 -
Financial instruments available for sale   n/a n/a 45,772 -
Equity instruments   n/a n/a 358 -
Quoted on a regulated market   n/a n/a 117 -
Not quoted on a regulated market   n/a n/a 241 -
Debt instruments   n/a n/a 45,414 -
Government securities   n/a n/a 31,484 -
Domestic   n/a n/a 30,762 -
Fixed rate   n/a n/a 19,060 -
Floating rate   n/a n/a 11,702 -
Foreign   n/a n/a 722 -
Fixed rate   n/a n/a 722 -
Other   n/a n/a 13,930 -
Quoted on a regulated market   n/a n/a 652 -
Fixed rate   n/a n/a 652 -
Not quoted on a regulated market   n/a n/a 13,278 -
Fixed rate   n/a n/a 13,077 -
Floating rate   n/a n/a 201 -
Financial instruments measured at fair value through profit or loss – classified as such upon first recognition   n/a n/a - 68
Equity instruments   n/a n/a - 65
Quoted on a regulated market   n/a n/a - 61
Not quoted on a regulated market   n/a n/a - 4
Debt instruments   n/a n/a - 3
Government securities   n/a n/a - 3
Foreign   n/a n/a - 3
Fixed rate   n/a n/a - 3
Financial instruments measured at fair value through profit or loss – held for trading   n/a n/a 1,817 5,728
Equity instruments   n/a n/a 5 4,438
Quoted on a regulated market   n/a n/a 5 383
Not quoted on a regulated market   n/a n/a - 4,055
Debt instruments   n/a n/a 1,812 1,290
Government securities   n/a n/a 1,732 1,267
Domestic   n/a n/a 1,732 1,267
Fixed rate   n/a n/a 435 1,267
Floating rate   n/a n/a 1,297 -
Other   n/a n/a 80 23
Not quoted on a regulated market   n/a n/a 80 23
Floating rate   n/a n/a 80 23
Loans   n/a n/a 14,066 90
Debt securities   n/a n/a 12,662 -
Other   n/a n/a 12,662 -
Quoted on a regulated market   n/a n/a 977 -
Fixed rate   n/a n/a 281 -
Floating rate   n/a n/a 696 -
Not quoted on a regulated market   n/a n/a 11,685 -
Fixed rate   n/a n/a 1,181 -
Floating rate   n/a n/a 10,504 -
Buy-sell-back transactions   n/a n/a 553 -
Term deposits with credit institutions   n/a n/a 851 90
Cash   15,288 2 6,620 1
Total financial assets of banks and financial assets at client’s risk   253,675 5,512 244,634 5,887

In its investing activities, the PZU Group uses derivatives as a tool to mitigate risk (with or without hedge accounting) and to facilitate efficient management of the investment portfolio.

The PZU Group’s exposure to derivatives is presented in section 34.

Exposure to debt securities issued by governments other than the Polish government

Carrying amount of debt securities issued by governments other than the Polish government 31 December 2018 31 December 2017
United States 957 833
Lithuania 638 431
Ireland 233 7
Spain 232 10
Portugal 226 -
Romania 157 106
Croatia 152 98
Hungary 117 195
Latvia 90 64
Ukraine 90 62
Bulgaria 75 55
Greece 72 -
Indonesia 71 199
Russia 69 46
Brazil 57 105
Turkey 55 150
Argentina 53 101
Other 749 1) 1,316 2)
Total 4,093 3,778

1) The Other line item states the countries with respect to which the balance sheet exposure does not exceed the equivalent of PLN 50 million: Albania, Armen ia, Australia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belgium, Bolivia, Cameroon, Chile, Columbia, Costa Rica, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Egypt, Ethiopia, France, Germany, Ghana, Guatemala, Honduras, India, Italy, Ivory Coast (Côte d’Ivoire), Jamaica, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Morocco, Mexico, Mongolia, Namibia, the Netherlands, Nigeria, Oman, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, South Africa, Senegal, Serbia, Slovenia, Sri Lanka, Sweden, Trinidad and Tobago, United Kingdom, Uruguay, Vietnam.
2) The Other line item shows: Azerbaijan, Chile, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Philippines, Guatemala, Jamaica, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Columbia, Costa Rica, Morocco, Mexico, Germany, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, South Africa, Senegal, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sri Lanka, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, United Kingdom, Italy, Ivory Coast, Zambia.

Exposure to debt securities issued by corporations and local government units

Carrying amount of debt securities issued by corporations and local government units 31 December 2018 31 December 2017
Domestic local governments 5,710 6,092
Foreign banks 3,495 61
National Bank of Poland 2,999 13,097
Transportation and storage 1,232 1,904
Companies from the WIG-Energy Index 1,183 1,886
Manufacturing 978 1,159
Public utility services 759 611
Companies from the WIG-Fuels Index 748 666
Companies from the WIG-Banks Index 452 563
Companies from the energy and fuel sector 312 447
Mining and quarrying (including companies included in the WIG-Mining index) 130 644
Other 1,391 1,245
Total 19,389 28,375

7.5.3.1. Interest rate Interest rate 

The following table presents the sensitivity test of the portfolio of financial instruments for which the PZU Group bears the risk (except for loan receivables from clients and deposit liabilities).

Change in portfolio value caused by a +/-100 bp shift in the yield curve, by currency of the instrument  31 December 2018 31 December 2017
decrease increase decrease increase
Polish zloty 1,237 (1,174) 1,118 (1,060)
Euro 42 (40) 10 (6)
US dollar 169 (153) 164 (143)
other 2 (2) 42 (41)
Total 1,450 (1,369) 1,334 (1,250)

The above sensitivity tests do not include the effects of changes in interest rates for technical provisions and liabilities under investment contracts. An analysis of effect of a change in technical rate on measurement of insurance contracts is presented in sections 7.5.2.1 and 7.5.2.2.

Interest rate risk in Pekao

The VaR model is the main tool for measuring interest rate risk of the trading book. This value reflects the level of ten-day loss that may be exceeded with a probability of no more than 1%. VaR is determined through historical simulation, based on a 2-year history of observation of the evolution of risk factors. The set of factors taken into account in the calculation of VaR includes all the relevant market factors that are taken into account in the valuation of financial instruments. The impact of changes in market factors on the current portfolio value is estimated using full revaluation (as a difference between the value of the portfolio after the change in market parameters, by the historically observed changes in those factors, and the present value of the portfolio). In the event of specific credit risk of an issuer, a simplified approach is applied based on an estimated variability of CDS benchmark index. For such a set of probable changes in the portfolio's value (distribution function), VaR is determined as the 1% quantile.

The following table presents VaR for the interest rate risk in Pekao’s trading book.

   31 December 2018  for January-December 2018 31 December 2017  for January-December 2017
Minimum Medium Maximum Minimum Medium Maximum
Trading book – VaR interest rate risk (in thous. PLN) 3,650 1,492 3,425 5,481 2,501 1,568 3,203 6,087

When managing interest rate risk in its banking book, Pekao endeavors to secure the economic value of equity and to achieve its intended net interest income target within the accepted limits. The financial position in view of the changing interest rates is monitored by using interest rate gap (revaluation gap), duration analysis, sensitivity analysis, stress testing and VaR.

The table below presents the contractual level of sensitivity of net interest income (NII) to a 100 bp decline in interest rates and sensitivity of Pekao’s economic value of equity (EVE) to a 200 bps decline in interest rates. EVE is defined as the present value of future cash flows that will be generated by the entity’s assets, less the present value of the future cash flows necessary to pay the entity’s liabilities. Both analyses assume an immediate change in market rates. The interest rate on bank products changes according to the contractual provisions, whereas in the case of contractual NII, for deposits from retail customers, the declines in interest rates are limited to the zero interest rate level, but not down to negative figures. In the case of EVE sensitivity for PLN- denominated current deposits, a model that ensures realistic revaluation is used.

Sensitivity in % 31 December 2018 31 December 2017
NII -8.64% -8.14%
EVE -0.95% 0.79%

Interest rate risk in Alior Bank

The interest rate risk related to Alior Bank’s open positions is linked, first of all, to:

  • revaluation date mismatch risk;
  • basis risk, or the impact of non-parallel change in reference indexes with a similar revaluation date on the financial result;
  • yield curve risk;
  • client option risk.

One of the method of estimating exposure to interest rate risk is to calculate BPV, which provides information on the estimated change in the valuation of a transaction/item after a parallel shift in the yield curve by 1 basis point.

BPV estimation for Alior Bank (data in PLN thousand)

    Currency    31 December 2018   31 December 2017
  Up to 6 months 6 months to 1 year   1 year - 3 years   3-5 years   5 to 10 years   Total   Up to 6 months 6 months to 1 year   1 year - 3 years   3-5 years   5 to 10 years   Total
PLN (33) 285 445 1,003 (122) 1,578 3 193 196 95 (90) 397
EUR (40) 42 258 359 15 634 - (8) 61 90 (5) 138
USD 16 22 4 - (2) 40 1 8 (2) - (1) 6
CHF (2) - - - - (2) (1) - (1) - - (2)
GBP (1) 2 - - - 1 (4) 2 - - - (2)
Other - - - - - - (1) 2 (1) - - -
Total (60) 351 707 1,362 (109) 2,251 (2) 197 253 185 (96) 537

For the interest rate risk management purposes, Alior Bank distinguishes trading activity involving securities and derivatives concluded for trading purposes and banking activity involving other securities, own issues, loans, deposits, credits and derivative transactions used to hedge the risk of the banking book. Alior Bank uses the Value at Risk (VaR) model to estimate the level of interest rate risk. The following table presents the economic capital to cover interest rate risk measured using this method at the end of 2018 and 2017 (99% VaR with a 10-day horizon).

Book  for January-December 2018 for January-December 2017
Minimum Medium Maximum Minimum Medium Maximum
Banking book 7 22 40 6 18 31
Trading book 1 3 5 1 2 4
Total 8 25 45 7 20 35

Alior Bank conducts scenario analysis that includes, among others, the impact of changes in interest rates on the future net interest income and economic value of equity. Within these scenarios internal limits are maintained, whose utilization is measured daily. Utilization of the limit of change in economic value of equity after a parallel shift of the percentage curve by +/- 200 bps and non-parallel shifts in the +/- 100/400 bps scenarios (for 1M/10Y tenors, the shift between them follows a linear interpolation) is presented in the following table:

(1M/10Y) scenario  Change in the economic value of equity
31 December 2018 31 December 2017
+400 / +100 385 189
+100 / -400 307 68
+200 / +200 281 103
- 200 / - 200 (204) (85)
- 100 / - 400 (204) (43)
- 400 / - 100 (219) (95)

7.5.3.2. Currency

Exposure to FX risk

Assets by currency  31 December 2018
PLN EUR USD Other Total
Loan receivables from clients 153,035 23,458 1,903 3,658 1) 182,054
Financial derivatives 1,818 417 198 54 2,487
Investment financial assets 88,455 7,796 5,174 240 101,665
Measured at amortized cost 42,162 2,580 333 159 45,234
.Debt securities 33,592 983 1 76 34,652
Government securities 27,338 86 1 76 27,501
Other 6,254 897 - - 7,151
Buy-sell-back transactions 3,278 - - - 3,278
Term deposits with credit institutions 1,286 1,250 150 83 2,769
Loans 4,006 347 182 - 4,535
Measured at fair value through other comprehensive income 30,788 3,674 4,272 3 38,737
Equity instruments 509 13 - - 522
Debt securities 30,279 3,661 4,272 3 38,215
Government securities 19,424 3,597 3,143 3 26,167
Other 10,855 64 1,129 - 12,048
Measured at fair value through profit or loss 15,505 1,542 569 78 17,694
Equity instruments 1,057 35 113 15 1,220
Participation units and investment certificates 3,556 550 178 14 4,298
Debt securities 10,892 957 278 49 12,176
Government securities 10,763 918 256 49 11,986
Other 129 39 22 - 190
Receivables 4,537 1,611 124 71 6,343
Cash and cash equivalents 11,741 3,815 778 721 2) 17,055
Total assets 259,586 37,097 8,177 4,744 309,604

1) Of which PLN 2,999 million in Swiss francs and PLN 409 million in British pounds.
2) Of which PLN 261 million in British pounds, PLN 157 million in Swiss francs, PLN 69 million in Swedish kronor, PLN 67 million in Norwegian kroner and PLN 52 million in Danish kroner.

  Assets by currency  31 December 2017 (restated)
PLN EUR USD Other Total
Loan receivables from clients 143,417 19,602 2,603 3,835 1) 169,457
Financial derivatives 1,690 354 180 127 2,351
Investment financial assets 99,690 6,080 3,912 364 110,046
Held to maturity 20,724 464 13 36 21,237
Debt securities – government 20,589 368 13 36 21,006
Debt securities – other 135 96 - - 231
Available for sale 43,731 3,058 1,725 5 48,519
Equity instruments 439 203 21 1 664
Debt securities 43,292 2,855 1,704 4 47,855
Government securities 29,113 2,828 1,704 4 33,649
Other 14,179 27 - - 14,206
Measured at fair value – classified as such upon first recognition 5,967 324 252 107 6,650
Equity instruments 1,616 239 47 45 1,947
Debt securities 4,351 85 205 62 4,703
Government securities 4,326 75 201 62 4,664
Other 25 10 4 - 39
Held for trading 10,904 982 1,608 99 13,593
Equity instruments 4,288 185 133 11 4,617
Debt securities 6,616 797 1,475 88 8,976
Government securities 6,514 794 1,303 88 8,699
Other 102 3 172 - 277
Loans 18,364 1,252 314 117 20,047
Debt securities 12,452 1,059 111 1 13,623
Government securities - - - 1 1
Other 12,452 1,059 111 - 13,622
Other, including: 5,912 193 203 116 6,424
- buy-sell-back transactions 885 - - - 885
- term deposits with credit institutions 1,606 58 61 116 1,841
- loans 3,421 135 142 - 3,698
Receivables 7,012 1,741 289 54 9,096
Cash and cash equivalents 4,877 1,959 492 911 2) 8,239
Total assets 256,686 29,736 7,476 5,291 299,189

1) Of which PLN 3,152 million in Swiss francs and PLN 121 million in Norwegian kroner.
2) Of which PLN 289 million in Czech korunas, PLN 193 million in British pounds, PLN 108 million in Swiss francs, PLN 83 million in Norwegian kroner and PLN 55 million in Swedish kronor.

  Liabilities by currency  31 December 2018 31 December 2017 (restated)
PLN EUR USD Other Total PLN EUR USD Other Total
Financial liabilities measured at fair value 3,445 374 157 41 4,017 4,199 385 223 149 4,956
Derivatives held for trading 1,982 277 150 41 2,450 2,038 285 134 149 2,606
Cash flow hedge derivatives 768 3 - - 771 682 - -   682
Fair value hedge derivatives 43 94 7 - 144 75 100 11   186
Liabilities on borrowed securities (short sale) 120 - - - 120 672 - 78   750
Investment contracts for the client’s account and risk (unit- linked)   266   -   -   -   266 312   -   -     312
Liabilities to members of consolidated mutual funds 266 - - - 266 420 - -   420
Financial liabilities measured at amortized cost 188,918 28,534 11,528 3,319 232,299 177,591 27,346 10,790 3,867 219,594
Liabilities to banks 2,234 3,474 60 276 1) 6,044 2,067 2,559 95 602 3) 5,323
Liabilities to clients under deposits 172,162 20,962 11,468 3,043 2) 207,635 163,350 20,853 10,695 3,265 4) 198,163
Liabilities on the issue of own debt securities 7,998 4,011 - - 12,009 5,761 3,849 -   9,610
Subordinated liabilities 5,974 87 - - 6,061 5,234 85 -   5,319
Liabilities on account of repurchase transactions 540 - - - 540 1,167 - -   1,167
Investment contracts with guaranteed and fixed terms and conditions   -   -   -   -   -   1   -   -     1
Finance lease liabilities 10 - - - 10 11 - -   11
Other liabilities 6,654 511 107 135 7,407 7,678 954 257 207 9,096
Total liabilities by currency 199,017 29,419 11,792 3,495 243,723 189,468 28,685 11,270 4,223 233,646

1) Of which PLN 226 million in Swiss francs.
2) Of which PLN 1,627 million in British pounds, PLN 584 million in Swiss francs, PLN 174 million in Norwegian kroner, PLN 112 million in Swedish kronor, PLN 89 million in Canadian dollars and PLN 81 million in Czech korunas.
3) Of which PLN 591 million in Swiss francs.
4) Of which PLN 597 million in Czech korunas, PLN 534 million in Swiss francs, PLN 153 million in Norwegian kroner and PLN 129 million in Swedish kronor.

To manage its FX risk, the PZU Group uses also derivatives which allows it to take a selected market exposure in a more efficient manner than by using cash instruments.

The following table presents the sensitivity test of the portfolio of PZU Group’s financial instruments (except for loan receivables from clients and deposit liabilities) in respect to financial instruments for which the PZU Group bears the risk.

Financial assets exposed to exchange risk include investment (deposit) financial assets of the PZU Group and derivative financial assets denominated in foreign currencies.

Change in portfolio value caused by a +/-20% change of the exchange rate  31 December 2018 31 December 2017
decrease increase decrease increase
EUR 189 (171) 343 (277)
USD (27) 48 (33) 43
GBP (4) 4 (3) 3
Other (9) 9 (12) 12
Total 149 (110) 295 (219)

Both Pekao and Alior Bank use the VaR model to measure currency risk. It allows them to calculate potential loss on currency positions kept by the Bank caused by changes in exchange rates, while maintaining the assumed confidence level (99%) and the period in which the position is kept. The following table presents VaR determined for the trading book FX risk in both banks:

  10-day VaR – fx risk – trading book (PLN thousand)   31 December 2018   31 December 2017
Pekao 370 2,337
Alior Bank 154 157

7.5.3.3. Equity

Level of risk exposure

The value of the portfolio of equity financial instruments is presented in item 35.2.

Sensitivity analysis

The following table presents the sensitivity test of PZU Group’s portfolio of quoted equity instruments for which the PZU Group bears the risk.

Impact of a change in the measurement of quoted equity instruments on equity 31 December 2018 31 December 2017
increase in measurement of quoted equity instruments by 20% 190 350
decrease in measurement of quoted equity instruments by 20% (190) (350)

7.5.3.4. Liquidity risk

Insurance activity

Financial liquidity risk of the PZU Group may result from three types of events:

  • shortage of liquid cash compared to current needs;
  • illiquidity of financial instruments held;
  • structural maturity mismatch between assets and liabilities.

In the liquidity risk management process, liquidity is controlled in the short, medium and long term, i.e.:

  • short-term liquidity – the balance of funds in the liquidity portfolio is maintained at no more than the limit specified for them. Conditional sell-buy-back transactions are also used to manage liquidity;
  • medium-term liquidity – investment portfolios with appropriate liquidity are maintained;
  • long-term liquidity and risk of structural mismatch between the maturity of assets and liabilities – Asset Liability Management (ALM) involves matching the structure of financial investments, which provide coverage for technical provisions, to the character of such provisions.

Another objective of the ALM process is to ensure the capability to pay claims and benefits, also in unfavorable economic conditions. The level of liquidity risk is measured by estimating the shortages of cash required to pay liabilities. The estimate is made using a set of analyzes, including among others a liquidity gap analysis (a mismatch of net cash flows) and an analysis of the distribution of expenditures relating to operating activity.

Pekao

The objective of liquidity risk management is to:

  • ensure and maintain the ability to meet both current and future liabilities, taking into account the costs of raising liquidity and return on equity;
  • prevent a crisis situation, and
  • identify the arrangements for overcoming a crisis when and if it occurs.

Pekao has a centralized liquidity risk management system in place, which includes regular liquidity management and first level control exercised by responsible units, second level control exercised by a dedicated unit responsible for risk management and independent audit.

Liquidity management in the Pekao Group is planned within the following time horizons:

  • intraday – applicable to intra-day flows;
  • short-term – including a liquidity measurement system within a one-year horizon;
  • long-term – covering a period of more than one year.

Due to the specific nature of the liquidity risk management tools and techniques used, the Pekao Group manages its current and medium-term liquidity together with short-term liquidity.

Alior Bank

The liquidity risk management policy at Alior Bank consists in maintaining liquidity positions so that it is possible to satisfy payment obligations at all times using the available cash in hand, proceeds from transactions with specified maturity dates or through the sale of transferable assets, while minimizing the costs of maintaining liquidity.

Alior Bank manages its liquidity by using ratios and related limits of the following types of liquidity:

  • payment liquidity – capacity to finance assets and pay liabilities on a timely basis in the ordinary course of business or in other foreseeable circumstances, without a need to incur loss. In payment liquidity management, special emphasis is placed on the analysis of immediate and current liquidity (up to 7 days);
  • short-term liquidity – ability to settle all the cash liabilities by the payment deadline falling within the period of 30 successive days;
  • medium-term liquidity – capacity to pay all liabilities with maturity dates from 1 to 12 months;
  • long-term liquidity – monitoring the capacity to pay all cash liabilities as they become due, in the period of more than 12 months.

Risk exposure

Carrying amount of debt instruments, by maturity, as at 31 December 2018 up to 1 year 1 – 2 years 2 – 3 years 3 – 4 years 4 – 5 years Over 5 years Total
Loan receivables from clients 53,823 18,022 13,302 14,537 12,512 69,858 182,054
Investment (deposit) debt instruments 16,429 8,028 11,300 15,091 9,231 35,546 95,625
Measured at amortized cost 9,485 2,497 2,717 5,005 5,540 19,990 45,234
Debt securities 3,629 2,253 2,663 3,803 4,411 17,893 34,652
Government securities 2,032 1,765 2,218 3,245 3,429 14,812 27,501
Other 1,597 488 445 558 982 3,081 7,151
Buy-sell-back transactions 3,278 - - - - - 3,278
Term deposits with credit institutions 2,532 170 54 - - 13 2,769
Loans 46 74 - 1,202 1,129 2,084 4,535
Measured at fair value through other comprehensive income 5,923 4,600 5,952 7,791 2,471 11,478 38,215
Government securities 1,413 4,002 2,581 7,006 1,666 9,499 26,167
Other 4,510 598 3,371 785 805 1,979 12,048
Measured at fair value through profit or loss 1,021 931 2,631 2,295 1,220 4,078 12,176
Government securities 944 887 2,619 2,275 1,215 4,046 11,986
Other 77 44 12 20 5 32 190
Total 70,252 26,050 24,602 29,628 21,743 105,404 277,679

Carrying amount of debt instruments, by maturity, as at 31 December 2017 up to 1 year 1 – 2 years 2 – 3 years 3 – 4 years 4 – 5 years Over 5 years Total
Loan receivables from clients 47,531 18,362 13,640 11,036 12,321 66,567 169,457
Investment (deposit) debt instruments 24,465 9,336 8,330 9,583 12,830 38,274 102,818
Held to maturity 229 1,350 1,087 1,243 4,604 12,724 21,237
Government securities 139 1,271 1,081 1,200 4,600 12,715 21,006
Other 90 79 6 43 4 9 231
Available for sale 19,457 5,260 2,632 3,756 4,803 11,947 47,855
Government securities 6,269 5,010 2,519 3,424 4,571 11,856 33,649
Other 13,188 250 113 332 232 91 14,206
Measured at fair value – classified as such upon first recognition 22 272 771 1,554 444 1,640 4,703
Government securities 20 272 770 1,549 417 1,636 4,664
Other 2 - 1 5 27 4 39
Held for trading 263 780 1,587 1,917 1,110 3,319 8,976
Government securities 240 764 1,482 1,903 1,094 3,216 8,699
Other 23 16 105 14 16 103 277
Loans 4,494 1,674 2,253 1,113 1,869 8,644 20,047
Debt securities 1,882 1,601 1,389 982 1,563 6,206 13,623
Government securities - 1 - - - - 1
Other 1,882 1,600 1,389 982 1,563 6,206 13,622
Other, including: 2,612 73 864 131 306 2,438 6,424
- buy-sell-back transactions 885 - - - - - 885
- term deposits with credit institutions 1,625 23 76 110 - 7 1,841
- loans 102 50 788 21 306 2,431 3,698
Total 71,996 27,698 21,970 20,619 25,151 104,841 272,275

The following table presents future undiscounted cash flow from assets and liabilities as at 31 December 2018.

Liquidity risk Up to 1 year 1 – 2 years 2 – 3 years 3 – 4 years 4 – 5 years 5 to 10 years Over 10 years Total
Assets 103,494 31,994 27,926 28,309 22,599 58,494 59,863 332,679
Cash and cash equivalents 13,195 142 103 85 74 274 3,258 17,131
Receivables 4,955 1,192 26 7 29 1 180 6,390
Loan receivables from clients 47,576 23,979 19,287 16,650 13,761 36,998 42,209 200,460
Debt securities 31,560 6,184 8,115 9,997 7,069 19,079 14,056 96,060
Loans 298 331 254 1,510 1,562 2,093 160 6,208
Buy-sell-back transactions 3,278 - - - - - - 3,278
Term deposits with credit institutions 2,632 166 141 60 104 49 - 3,152
Liabilities (106,726) (13,218) (7,707) (4,824) (3,664) (17,013) (117,603) (270,755)
Technical provisions (7,122) (1,806) (1,316) (1,081) (905) (2,501) (21,225) (35,956)
Financial liabilities (95,013) (11,138) (6,378) (3,732) (2,740) (14,476) (95,724) (229,201)
Other liabilities (4,591) (274) (13) (11) (19) (36) (654) (5,598)
Gap (3,232) 18,776 20,219 23,485 18,935 41,481 (57,740) 61,924

The following table presents future undiscounted cash flows from banks’ off-balance sheet liabilities (by contractual terms)

Off-balance sheet liabilities granted up to 1 month 1 -3 months 3 months to 1 year 1 – 5 years over 5 years Total
Financing 48,769 - - - - 48,769
Guarantees 7,702 - - - - 7,702
Total 56,471 - - - - 56,471

7.5.4. Operational risk

Operational risk is the possibility of suffering loss resulting from improper or erroneous internal processes, human activities, system failures or external events.

Operational risk management has the purpose of optimizing the level of operational risk and operating efficiency in the PZU Group’s operations, leading to a reduction of losses and costs arising from such risks and ensuring adequate and effective control mechanisms. Information on operational risk levels is regularly reported to relevant internal authorities.

Operational risk is identified in particular by:

  • accumulation and analysis of information on operational risk incidents;
  • self-assessment of operational risk;
  • scenario analyses.

Operational risk is assessed and measured by:

  • calculating the effects of the occurrence of operational risk incidents;
  • estimating the effects of possible occurrence of operational risk incidents.

Monitoring and control of operational risk is performed mainly through an established system of operational risk indicators enabling assessment of changes in the level of operational risk over time and assessment of factors that affect the level of this risk in the business.

Reporting involves communicating the level of operational risk, the effects of monitoring and control to various decision-making levels. The frequency of each report and the scope of information provided therein are tailored to the information needs at each decision-making level.

Management actions involving reactions to any identified and assessed operational risks involve, in particular:

  • taking actions aimed at minimizing risks, for instance by strengthening the internal control system;
  • risk transfer – in particular, by entering into insurance agreements;
  • risk avoidance by refraining from undertaking or withdrawing from a particular type of business in cases where too high a level of operational risk is ascertained and where the costs involved in risk mitigation are unreasonable;
  • risk acceptance – approval of consequences of a possible realization of operational risk unless they threaten to exceed the operational risk tolerance level.

7.5.5. Compliance risk

Compliance risk is the risk of legal sanctions, financial losses or loss of reputation or credibility arising from a failure of PZU Group companies, their employees or entities acting on their behalf to comply with the law, internal regulations or standards of conduct, including ethical standards.

The demarcation of responsibilities with respect to systemic and ongoing compliance risk management is based on internal regulations.

Systemic management entails in particular: developing solutions for implementing compliance risk management principles, monitoring the compliance risk management process and promoting and monitoring compliance with internal regulations and standards of conduct in respect to compliance.

Ongoing compliance risk management entails: identifying, assessing and measuring and adaptation to regulatory requirements. 

7.5.6. Model risk

Model risk is the risk of incurring financial losses, incorrectly estimating data reported to the regulatory authority, taking incorrect decision or losing reputation as a result of errors in the development, implementation or application of models. In 2018, model risk was classified as material risk and the formal process of its identification and measurement was started.

At present, the process is implemented at PZU and PZU Życie and aims to ensure high quality of risk management practices applied to this risk.

Model risk is very important for banking sector entities and therefore management of this risk has already been implemented in the course of adaptation to the requirements of Recommendation W issued by the KNF. Both banks have defined standards for the model risk management process, including the rules for developing models and evaluating the quality of their operation and have ensured appropriate corporate governance solutions.

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