In 2018, PZU stock recommendations were issued by 12 domestic and international financial institutions in total. In total, sell-side analysts issued 16 recommendations, with 75% of them being positive.
At the end of 2018, PZU had 11 current recommendations (6 buy, 3 overweight and 2 sell). In 2018 “buy” recommendations were prevalent. In contrast with 2017, no “sell” recommendation was issued.
The median target price in the valid recommendations as at 31 December 2018 was PLN 49.5 (down 3.1% y/y, or 2.1% if consideration is given to cutting off the dividend in September 2018). The average target price was 11.4% higher than the share price at the end of 2018 (at the end of 2017 the deviation was 16.0%).
Statistics related to the recommendations issued in 2018
Price variance of the recommendations in 2018
|31 December 2018||31 December 2017||change||Price variance of the
recommendations from the share price at the end of 2018 (PLN 43.9)
|Highest target price||54||55.4||-2.50%||23.00%|
|Median of the target prices||49.5||51.1||-3.10%||12.80%|
|Average of the target prices||48.9||48.9||0.00%||11.40%|
|Lowest target price||43||37||16.20%||-2.10%|
In 2018 analysts issuing recommendations for PZU’s shares devoted considerable space in their publications to the situation on the motor insurance market in light of rising price pressure, the development of case law regarding general damages, in particular when it comes to people in a vegetative state and as a consequence of the possible profitability erosion in this insurance segment. The potential risks and threats posed to the high margin business model in group and individually continued insurance and the assessment of the impact exerted by financial market volatility on the Group’s investment performance
were an equally important topic. A material issue raised especially in H1 2018 was the impact of possible Pekao and Alior Bank merger on the PZU Group’s business and results.
In 2018 PZU’s average target share price according to analysts oscillated around PLN 49, implying 35% share price upside. At yearend 2018, the upside narrowed to roughly 11%; at the end of December 2018 the PZU share price was PLN 43.90, while the average target price was PLN 48.90.
In H1 2018 analysts issued recommendations with a wide range of target prices. In H2 the range between maximum and minimum target price started to dwindle, due to the structural evolution in analyst recommendations from neutral to overweight. In the final quarter of 2018 the minimum target price was higher than the share price. At the closing of the final session in 2018, the minimum target price was already 2.1% below the share price.
Target prices for PZU stocks, based on recommendations valid at the end of December 2018
Źródło: dane PZU
Institutions issuing recommendations for PZU’s stock (as at 31 December 2018)
|Poland||Citi||Andrzej Powierża||+48 22 690 35 66|
|Erste||Mateusz Krupa||+48 22 330 62 51|
|Ipopema||Łukasz Jańczak||+48 22 236 92 30|
|JP Morgan||Michał Kużawiński||+48 22 441 95 34|
|mBank||Michał Konarski||+48 22 697 47 37|
|PKO BP||Jaromir Szortyka||+48 22 580 39 47|
|Trigon||Maciej Marcinowski||+48 22 4338 375|
|Wood & Company||Marta Jeżewska-Wasilewska||+48 22 222 15 48|
|Abroad||HSBC||Dhruv Gahlaut||+44 20 7991 6728|
|Raiffeisen Centrobank||Bernd Maurer||+43 1 51520 706|
|UBS||Michael Christelis||+27 11 322 7320|
In 2018 PZU had analyst coverage by Deutsche Bank. Due to changes in the structure of the research team, as of 29 August 2018 this bank ceased to issue recommendations for PZU stocks.
On 18 January 2019 Haitong Bank reinitiated coverage of PZU.